Manipulation and (Mis)trust in Prediction Markets

manipulation in dubbing and subtitling

پژوهش حاضر در چارچوب مکتب دستکاری قرار گرفت و با استفاده از تقسیم بندی دوکات (2007) از شیوه های دستکاری، به دنبال یافتن پاسخ برای پرسش های زیر بود: 1-رایج ترین شیوه دستکاری در دوبله فیلم ها کدام است؟ 2-رایج ترین شیوه دستکاری در زیرنویس فیلم ها کدام است؟ 3-دستکاری در دوبله فیلم ها رایج تر است یا در زیرنویس آن ها؟ این پژوهش از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی- مقایسه ای و پیکره ای می باشد. پیکره تحقیق شا...

Manipulation in Political Prediction Markets

Outcome Manipulation in Corporate Prediction Markets∗

This paper presents a framework for applying prediction markets to corporate decision making. The analysis is motivated by the recent surge of interest in markets as information aggregation devices and their potential use within firms. We characterize the amount of outcome manipulation that results in equilibrium and the impact of this manipulation on market prices. (JEL: D71, D82, D83, D84)

Price manipulation in prediction markets: analysis and mitigation

We consider the possible existence of a manipulator in a prediction market, whose incentive is to maximally increase the predicted probability of an event, and for whom profit or loss in the market is immaterial. We characterize the equilibria in a single-round market scoring rule (MSR), showing that the manipulator will play a strategy that mixes between pretending to have received one of the ...

Trading on a Rigged Game: Outcome Manipulation in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are popular mechanisms for aggregating information about a future event. In situations where market participants may significantly influence the outcome, running the prediction market could change the incentives of participants in the process that creates the outcome. We propose a new game-theoretic model that captures two aspects of real-world prediction markets: (1) agents ...